Journey with Confidence RV GPS App RV Trip Planner RV LIFE Campground Reviews RV Maintenance Take a Speed Test Free 7 Day Trial ×


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-12-2017, 03:55 PM   #1
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SE Michigan
Posts: 2,024
What will the market look like in a year or two?

With all the builders (not just FR running at or over capacikty and everyone getting on the RV bandwagon, whether it be a 5er or a pull behind, pop up, MoHo or Truck camper, I wonder what the market, especially the used market will be like in say a year or two.

There will be a percentage of new owners who decide the RV thing isn't for them and sell their units. Then, you have the unhappy with their unit people that will also off the unit and may or may not buy another brand.

At the rate that builders are cranking out new units, at some point the market will reach saturation because not everyone is an RV'er. Factor in the slowly rising cost of fuel (gas and diesel) and it will continue to rise more than likely and we have the perfect storm brewing for a tremendous used unit buyers market I suspect.

I believe lightly used units will sell for a mere fraction of the initial cost and a lot of first time buyers that decide that the RV lifestyle isn't for them will be holding the bag on large financial obligations with no hope of even breaking even..

What do you say???
SidecarFlip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 04:01 PM   #2
Senior Member
 
BandJCarm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Between Pickles Gap and Toad Suck, AR
Posts: 6,070
10,000 people are retiring every single day..........
__________________
"Next to prayer, fishing is the most personal relationship of man" Herbert Hoover
"American by Birth, Southern by the Grace of God"Lewis Grizzard

FROG AR-0019-242
2016 GMC Denali 3500Dually--2017 CC 36CKTS
BandJCarm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 04:18 PM   #3
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Ohio North Coast
Posts: 569
The balloon has to pop sooner or later. I, for one, am in it for the long haul. Yes the ones that bought the big units and decided camping was not for them will take a bath when they get rid of them. Some people wait and let the original owners take the depreciation hit, and then buy the "slightly used" unit. IMO that is the smart way to do it. Just like big business, there are all kind of stores and buildings sitting empty, but they are building new stores and strip malls up the wazoo. Go figure! Eventually the "supply & demand" theory will bottom out and things will come to a stand still. Like my dad use to say "the urge is still there but it is not so urgent!"

Bob
__________________
2013 Ford F250 SD 6.7L
2014 Wildwood Heritage Glen 282RK
Certified Rumble Strip Tester
retiredcamper47 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 04:40 PM   #4
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SE Michigan
Posts: 2,024
Quote:
Originally Posted by BandJCarm View Post
10,000 people are retiring every single day..........
I agree. I'm retired, sort of. Owning my own business means I never retire but more to the point, how many of those 10,000 will buy an RV in the first place and of that percentage, how many will stay with it. It's not for everyone by a long shot.

Then, we have the inherent lack of quality issues and thye quick build get it out the door issue that I'm sure will cause a lot of buyers to have buyers remorse and off the unit.

I know a number of retirees who prefer to travel via a motel or take a cruise rather than go camping. Camping, no matter how you shake it takes lots of preparation and even more money besides buying the RV, that is just the start.

I think it will be interesting and assuredly a buyers market for used RV's shortly.
SidecarFlip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 04:40 PM   #5
Senior Member
 
Iwannacamp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 7,916
I figure if the fit hits the shan we can live in it. Cheaper than a house payment..worst case. If the zombie apocalypse ever really happened it would make a bug out vehicle...hey. It could happen.
__________________
2017 Puma 297RLSS
2005 Ram 2500 4X4 diesel SMOKER!!
I love puns, irony and tasteless jokes...
born in Texas.... live in Arkansas
Iwannacamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 04:49 PM   #6
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SE Michigan
Posts: 2,024
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iwannacamp View Post
I figure if the fit hits the shan we can live in it. Cheaper than a house payment..worst case. If the zombie apocalypse ever really happened it would make a bug out vehicle...hey. It could happen.
Don't see that happening anytime soon but, the market is very cyclical (RV) and is totally dependent on fuel prices and disposable income as well as interest rates and the Fed is supposed to raise the prime twice this year.

I saw the RV industry go bust once, could very well happen again.

Some units cost more than a home. Myself, I'll take a house over a shanty on wheels anyday. A house appreciates in value, a shanty on wheels depreciates and from what I see the depreciation curve is pretty steep too.

Myself, I too am a long haul RV'er but I don't believe that is the norm.
SidecarFlip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 05:05 PM   #7
Senior Member
 
lugoismad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 459
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iwannacamp View Post
I figure if the fit hits the shan we can live in it. Cheaper than a house payment..worst case. If the zombie apocalypse ever really happened it would make a bug out vehicle...hey. It could happen.
This is actually something that's been a huge load off to me. Single income family. Worst case if the **** hits the fan, we have a warm, dry place to hang our heads and I could move around as needed if I found a job in a different part of the country. Wouldn't be fun, it would be cramped as hell, but we could make it work.
lugoismad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 06:09 PM   #8
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SE Michigan
Posts: 2,024
Somehow, living in a Walmart parking lot don't have much appeal to me.
SidecarFlip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 07:09 PM   #9
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 337
Quote:
Originally Posted by lugoismad View Post
This is actually something that's been a huge load off to me. Single income family. Worst case if the **** hits the fan, we have a warm, dry place to hang our heads and I could move around as needed if I found a job in a different part of the country. Wouldn't be fun, it would be cramped as hell, but we could make it work.
That's been my exact thoughts as well. First of all, until the boomers die off, RVs of any type will be a thing. And for young couples too. Gotta look at the aggregate numbers. In the immortal words of Buffalo Springfield, circa 1967, there's something happening here what it is ain't exactly clear. But major changes are afoot. I look to my camper as a bug out as well. I feel darned lucky to have it. Call me a tin foil hatter, but something's not right. And im not picking on one side or the other. But it's coming. I can feel it and I can smell it. I was there in 65. It's the same. But worse.
Mdaniels4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 07:17 PM   #10
Scoundrel
 
HangDiver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Montrose, Colorado
Posts: 2,788
I always buy slightly used and shop hard for the best deal I can find. I'm not concerned at all about what the market may look like years from now. Its out of my control and it doesn't matter anyway. Its more about making memories and looking forward to the next adventure.

Rich J.
HangDiver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 07:21 PM   #11
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 3,290
not sure that the 'balloon has to pop', or similar thought, here's why:

17,000,000 NEW vehicles were sold last year in the Auto and Truck market.... that's 17 million NEW vehicles being constantly pumped out by every major and minor builder in the market. This year is on the same pace. Where do they all go??

that's just the NEW market, not to even consider TWICE as many in the used market that change hands...

The thousands and thousands of RVs, especially motorized units, are a tiny, tiny fraction of what is sold in the marketplace, especially over the last several 'record' market years, as compared with all other 'recreational' vehicles, such as ATVs, Boats, Snowmobiles, etc., etc.,....

yes, it 'seems' as if the market might be 'saturated' when you see all of the units stacked up at some dealerships, but those dealership are a tiny fraction of the number of NEW car dealership also popping up all over. I wonder who is buying all those cars?
Is there a car buying 'bubble' coming soon?
__________________
The Turners...
'07 Rockwood Signature Ultralight...
two Campers and two Electric cars : )
formerFR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 07:33 PM   #12
Senior Member
 
Oaklevel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Virginia
Posts: 9,737
That would be the million dollar question......who know I have seen RVs go from a huge one being 28ft ours was 23 ft, to now 40 plus feet. Fireplaces, ice makers, stereos, ducted AC, beds with real mattresses, TVs, more than one holding tank, tank level sensors, slide outs, and so on where will it stop......

Like cars they do have a self destruct mode how many campers are out there older than 1990......... few....... I do not see the RV market ending or slowing down any time soon.

Y2K, zombie or other end of the world fear............ it's all good
__________________

2005 Dodge 3500 Cummins
2017 Wildwood Lodge 4092 BFL
1966 Mustang GT
1986 Mustang SVO
Lillie Spoiled Rotten Boxer Mix
Oaklevel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 07:55 PM   #13
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 353
The bigger worry is the availabity of campsites if they keep turning out units at this rate
packrat48 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 09:57 PM   #14
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SE Michigan
Posts: 2,024
So long as I have plenty of side jobs and my Medicare is solvent, I'm happy.

No tinfoil hat here.

Don't see a huge RV as a 'bugout' dwelling myself. But then I don't have one either. Just a truck camper in my 4x4 pickup that can go just about anywhere on road and off road. I guess if I was into bugging out, I would think I have the right RV to do it with. I'm fully self contained and need no outside power or hookups. In fact, if we ever stay in a campground (rarely), I always ask for a primitive site.

On subject...

At some point I believe the market will get saturated, only so many can be sold and then you wind up like the automakers, with excess inventory and the price of used cars or in this case RV's tanks.

Unlike cars however, most RV's built today (not all but most) appear to have various issues (as noted on this forum and others that I frequent).

I believe the quality of product issue will bite the industry in the behind at some point.

Boomers want quality and a 'plug and play' experience not issues at any price point.
SidecarFlip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 10:03 PM   #15
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SE Michigan
Posts: 2,024
Quote:
Originally Posted by formerFR View Post
not sure that the 'balloon has to pop', or similar thought, here's why:

17,000,000 NEW vehicles were sold last year in the Auto and Truck market.... that's 17 million NEW vehicles being constantly pumped out by every major and minor builder in the market. This year is on the same pace. Where do they all go??

that's just the NEW market, not to even consider TWICE as many in the used market that change hands...

The thousands and thousands of RVs, especially motorized units, are a tiny, tiny fraction of what is sold in the marketplace, especially over the last several 'record' market years, as compared with all other 'recreational' vehicles, such as ATVs, Boats, Snowmobiles, etc., etc.,....

yes, it 'seems' as if the market might be 'saturated' when you see all of the units stacked up at some dealerships, but those dealership are a tiny fraction of the number of NEW car dealership also popping up all over. I wonder who is buying all those cars?
Is there a car buying 'bubble' coming soon?
There was one not so long ago and President Obama initiated 'Cash for Clunkers' to jump start the market plus he 'bailed out' the car companies that were about to go down the toilet because they weren't selling automobiles.

Don't see that playing in the RV arena. RV's are considered a luxury' item not a necessity, not that a car is but, we are all about automobiles and cannot exist without at least one. We can exist just fine without an RV.
SidecarFlip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 04:28 PM   #16
Senior Member
 
CaptnJohn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Eastern NC
Posts: 3,963
Certainly not in 2018, but sometime after that I expect to see the next RV downturn. A big rise in fuel costs, lack of site availability, or housing/stock market drop. Nothing goes on forever without a pullback and RV sales are no different. Already sold some Thor and CW stock as they have gone way too high.
__________________
2022 Montana 3855 BR
2019 F350 6.7 4X4 LB Dually
Edgewater 205 EX 150 Yamaha
CaptnJohn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 07:30 PM   #17
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,083
Probably the eventual limit will be the inability to get a desirable campsite for a summer weekend without reserving a year in advance. I see that as a choke point because the building of new campgrounds is a very rare thing. When enough people realize that they can't use their $30K camper except in the off season, sales will tank. And used RV prices will sink even faster.

The quality issues in the industry may turn out to be an even worse enemy than desirable campsite shortage. The features vs quality vs price trade-off is not to the industry's long term advantage.

I've seen the boating industry - especially sailboats - completely tank for similar issues. Sailboats were accelerating rapidly in price due to more and more features, there was no where to keep them (marinas are even more limited than campsites), and maintenance was and is a real time and/or cost sink. The marina shortage and maintenance costs dumped a lot of sound, used, but neglected sailboats on the market at dirt cheap prices. Producers of new sailboats could not compete for the die-hard sailors, and most went out of business. The same happened to the bigger powerboats that were too big to trailer.

I learned with boats that the smallest practical boat for the waters would get used the most (at least in my case). I've found the same with campers. Which is why we now have the smallest A-frame Forest River makes, and we can literally leave on an hour's notice. Set up of the entire campsite is less than 30 minutes, and take-down is the same. This makes a one night campout quite practical and enjoyable.

just my thoughts and experiences
Fred W
2014 Rockwood A122 A-frame
2008 Hyundai Entourage minivan
camping Colorado and adjacent states one weekend at a time
pgandw is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 07:40 PM   #18
Senior Member
 
Moparman1230's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Kansas City, MO
Posts: 134
Quote:
Originally Posted by packrat48 View Post
The bigger worry is the availabity of campsites if they keep turning out units at this rate


^^^THAT is my #1 concern.

Some locations are to the point that if you don't reserve a spot the day they open for reservations, by the next day they're booked solid.
__________________
"Do, or do not, there is no try." - Yoda

2017 Cherokee 294BH
2015 Ram 2500 4x4 6.4L V8 Crew Cab
Moparman1230 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 08:08 PM   #19
Senior Member
 
Iwannacamp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 7,916
When a new p/u was $25k I said that is CRAZY. Now how much? People want a house on wheels in their RV. Wifi, 600 sq ft, washer/drier, dish washer, 4+ slides, 2 baths, satellite, 2-3 a/c units, 500HP engine, 100+ gal tanks, etc.
Kind of like cars...more and more accessories. This drives up the weight/price in the RV world and makes the current models more obsolete.
__________________
2017 Puma 297RLSS
2005 Ram 2500 4X4 diesel SMOKER!!
I love puns, irony and tasteless jokes...
born in Texas.... live in Arkansas
Iwannacamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 08:16 PM   #20
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 337
Mine stays at a seasonal. It'll get pulled someday, by somebody else. Stated with a 29 fiver. Then went 38 fiver. Then 41 fiver. Now 40 cottage. I go bigger, but I'm at I think my limit. If I was going around to different campsites all the time, honestly I'd be happy in a pop up. Dont care about the depreciation. If it's a pos I dump it and go for something else. If not I keep it and maintain it. It simply is what it it is. I could not have possibly known when I bought it if it was not a good one. When all you've bought is higher end they all look nice. And sometimes looks deceive. So if this one is a good one, it'll be there a long time. If not, off it goes, and I wash my hands of it. I love camping. So it's a cost, but a educated one I can handle.
Mdaniels4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


» Featured Campgrounds

Reviews provided by

Disclaimer:

This website is not affiliated with or endorsed by Forest River, Inc. or any of its affiliates. This is an independent, unofficial site.



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:59 PM.