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Old 03-11-2015, 06:29 AM   #1411
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Thanks Phrank & Bob
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Old 03-11-2015, 06:48 AM   #1412
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Thanks Frank-VA & Frog Bob! Good news! Youroo!!
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Old 03-11-2015, 07:43 AM   #1413
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Thank you for the update. We are looking forward to our first FROG rally!
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Old 03-11-2015, 07:44 AM   #1414
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Thanks Mr. Phrank, and thanks for the info Bob
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Old 03-11-2015, 07:49 AM   #1415
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Thanks Phrank!! ~n~ FROG Bob!!


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Old 03-11-2015, 09:18 AM   #1416
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PHRANK....THANKS!!


FROG Bob - I'm with you Having nothing better to do with my morning <G> I did a moving trend analysis on the 3 data points (VERY scientifically unreliable BTW )


Came up with a notional range of 689 - 742 rigs, 715 projected


Yeah it's gonna be big!! You have DONE GOOD for 3 years FROG Bob!!
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Old 03-11-2015, 09:59 AM   #1417
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Thanks Phrank and Frog Bob!!
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Old 03-11-2015, 09:52 PM   #1418
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As to Youroo's concern: Per Oceanservice.noaa.gov, True tides—changes in water level caused by the gravitational forces of the sun and moon—do occur in a semi-diurnal (twice daily) pattern on the Great Lakes. Studies indicate that the Great Lakes spring tide, the largest tides caused by the combined forces of the sun and moon, is less than five centimeters in height. These minor variations are masked by the greater fluctuations in lake levels produced by wind and barometric pressure changes.

Consequently, the Great Lakes are considered to be non-tidal.

Water levels in the Great Lakes have long-term, annual, and short-term variations. Long-term variations depend on precipitation and water storage over many years. Annual variations occur with the changing seasons. There is an annual high in the late spring and low in the winter. These changes occur at a rate that can be measured in feet per month.

Wind and weather conditions on the Great Lakes may create a seiche, an oscillating wave which can be several feet high. In many of the Great Lakes, the time period between the “high” and “low” of a seiche may be between four and seven hours. As this is very similar to the six-hour time period of the tides on the ocean, it is frequently mistaken for a tide.


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Old 03-11-2015, 10:04 PM   #1419
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Youroo, to get a Lake Michigan OFS Water Level Forecast Guidance, there is a water level animation created with hourly plots from the latest LMOFS forecast guidance. The forecast guidance is for the next 30 hours of water levels as simulated by the model when the Lake Michigan is forced by meteorological parameters that are predicted by the National Weather Service models


http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs...pe=wl_forecast


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Old 03-11-2015, 10:34 PM   #1420
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HSVBamaBob View Post
PHRANK....THANKS!!


FROG Bob - I'm with you Having nothing better to do with my morning <G> I did a moving trend analysis on the 3 data points (VERY scientifically unreliable BTW )


Came up with a notional range of 689 - 742 rigs, 715 projected


Yeah it's gonna be big!! You have DONE GOOD for 3 years FROG Bob!!
Thanks! I came to about the same result that you did using a SWAG Estimation Algorithm.
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