The Factor of 5

[bmg]

We recently purchased an '06 Surveyor SV 264. It was like new. The previous owners had garaged it year around. They kept up with all the maintenance, but rarely used it. In fact my wife said the stove and oven had never been used.

The only major problem was the refrigerator needed a new cooling unit. My guess is that they were not careful in leveling the few times they used it. It had been replaced with an all electric $350 Frigidaire. I removed the Frigidaire and turned into a beer and ice cream center in my home office. I found a local refrigerator service man who installed a new cooling unit in the original refrigerator with a 5 year warranty for $432.

That left me with a number of "little" projects to do. Stuff like installing satellite connectors, tv mounts, levels etc. One project was replacing the extension arm and handle on the bedroom sky light. I found a replacement kit at CW for 10 bucks and began went to work.

Now I always try to determine before hand how much time each project would take. In this case I figured about 15 minutes. Were talking taking out 4 screws to remove the screen and 2 more to remove the handle. It looked pretty easy. That was until the instructions said to remove the retention clip on the existing arm. I made 2 or 3 trips up and down the ladder to get various tools, but try as I may I could not get that dang clip out. So finally, I climbed back on the roof with my handy dandy hacksaw and cut the old arm. After that I was able to get the new arm installed and with a little more effort got the new retention clip installed. Add a little lithium grease and the arm worked like a charm. Time on the job: 1 hour and 15 minutes. 5 times what I had estimated! I then began to realize that ALL the "little" jobs also had a "Factor of 5". It took 5 times what I thought it would to do each one. I began to wonder it that some kind of universal law, like the 80/20 principle.

Forgive me for rambling; it's been a long day. Let me know if it's just me or is there some kind of Law that makes everything take 5 times longer. I would like to read some of your experiences.

[Tracker]

I agree with you bmg.Not only do I have the 5 factor,But mine is the 5X3 factor.5 times as long, and 3 trips to the hardware store.

[Willie]

You're not rambling, we completely agree...My wife tells that everytime I say it's going to take me 30 mins, to do "a project" she multiplies that by 1.5


Oh yeah, and don't forget the ...other little projects that all of the sudden developed while you're doing that one.

[NWJeeper]

Same here BMG. Whenever doing a job I estimate what the time will be and double it. Usually I am pretty close but those trips to the hardware store really increase the time. Here are some things I have learned over the years:

The 50/50/100 rule. If there is a 50/50 chance of doing something right, the chances are 100% that I will do it wrong.

One of the Murphy's Law axioms: A part dropped will bounce to the least accessible corner of the shop and is usually the next part you need.

Here is a glossary I found of common shop tools for those that may not know their true uses:



AVIATION METAL SNIPS: See hacksaw.

BELT SANDER: An electric sanding tool commonly used to convert
minor touch-up jobs into major refinishing jobs.

CRAFTSMAN 1/2 x 24-INCH SCREWDRIVER: A very large pry bar that
inexplicably has an accurately machined screwdriver tip on the end
opposite the handle.

DAMMIT TOOL: Any handy tool that you grab and throw across the
garage while yelling "DAMMIT" at the top of our lungs. It is also,
most often, the next tool that you will need.

DRILL PRESS: A tall upright machine useful for suddenly snatching
flat metal bar stock out of your hands so that it smacks you in the
chest and flings your beer across the room, denting the freshly-painted
hood of your Jeep which you had carefully set in the corner where nothing
could get to it.

ELECTRIC HAND DRILL: Normally used for spinning pop rivets in
their holes until you die of old age.

E-Z OUT BOLT AND STUD EXTRACTOR: A tool ten times harder than any
known drill bit that snaps neatly off in the bolt you are trying to remove thereby ending any
possiblity of removing the broken bolt.

HACKSAW: One of a family of cutting tools built on the Ouija board
principle. It transforms human energy into a crooked,unpredictable
motion, and the more you attempt to influence its course, the more
dismal your future becomes.

HAMMER: Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays
is used as a kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts
adjacent the object we are trying to hit.

MECHANIC'S KNIFE: Used to open and slice through the contents of
cardboard cartons delivered to your front door; works particularly
well on contents such as seats, liquids in plastic bottles,
collector magazines, refund checks, and rubber or plastic parts.
Especially useful for slicing work clothes, but only while in use.

HOSE CUTTER: A tool used to make hoses too short.

OXYACETYLENE TORCH: Used almost entirely for lighting various
flammable objects in your shop on fire. Also handy for igniting the grease
inside the wheel hub you want the bearing race out of.

PHILLIPS SCREWDRIVER: Normally used to stab the vacuum seals
under lids but is usually used, as the name implies, to strip
out Phillips screw heads.

PLIERS: Used to round off bolt heads. Sometimes used in the
creation of blood-blisters.

PRY BAR: A tool used to crumple the metal surrounding that clip or
bracket you needed to remove in order to replace a 50 cent part.

SKILL SAW: A portable cutting tool used to make everything too short.

STRAIGHT SCREWDRIVER: A tool for opening paint
cans. Sometimes used to convert common slotted screws into non-removable screws.

TABLE SAW: A large stationary power tool commonly used to launch
wood projectiles for testing wall integrity. Not commonly found in the metal fabrication shop.

TUBE BENDER: Device used for converting useable straight tube into oddly bent useless items
resembling modern art.

TUBE NOTCHER: Used in conjuction with the drill press to notch tube 1/2" too short.

TWO-TON ENGINE HOIST: A tool for testing the maximum
tensile strength of everything you forgot to disconnect.

VISE-GRIPS: Generally used after pliers to
completely round off bolt heads. If nothing else is available, they can also be used to
transfer intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.

WELDING GLOVES: Heavy duty leather gloves used to prolong the
conduction of intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.

WIRE FEED WELDER: Used for dispensing wire.

WIRE WHEEL: Cleans paint off bolts and then throws them somewhere
under the workbench with the speed of light. Also removes fingerprints
and hard-earned calluses from fingers in about the time it takes
you to say, "Oh s%&t!"

[SaskCampers]

Originally Posted by NWJeeper

Same here BMG. Whenever doing a job I estimate what the time will be and double it. Usually I am pretty close but those trips to the hardware store really increase the time. Here are some things I have learned over the years:

The 50/50/100 rule. If there is a 50/50 chance of doing something right, the chances are 100% that I will do it wrong.

One of the Murphy's Law axioms: A part dropped will bounce to the least accessible corner of the shop and is usually the next part you need.

Here is a glossary I found of common shop tools for those that may not know their true uses:



AVIATION METAL SNIPS: See hacksaw.

BELT SANDER: An electric sanding tool commonly used to convert
minor touch-up jobs into major refinishing jobs.

CRAFTSMAN 1/2 x 24-INCH SCREWDRIVER: A very large pry bar that
inexplicably has an accurately machined screwdriver tip on the end
opposite the handle.

DAMMIT TOOL: Any handy tool that you grab and throw across the
garage while yelling "DAMMIT" at the top of our lungs. It is also,
most often, the next tool that you will need.

DRILL PRESS: A tall upright machine useful for suddenly snatching
flat metal bar stock out of your hands so that it smacks you in the
chest and flings your beer across the room, denting the freshly-painted
hood of your Jeep which you had carefully set in the corner where nothing
could get to it.

ELECTRIC HAND DRILL: Normally used for spinning pop rivets in
their holes until you die of old age.

E-Z OUT BOLT AND STUD EXTRACTOR: A tool ten times harder than any
known drill bit that snaps neatly off in the bolt you are trying to remove thereby ending any
possiblity of removing the broken bolt.

HACKSAW: One of a family of cutting tools built on the Ouija board
principle. It transforms human energy into a crooked,unpredictable
motion, and the more you attempt to influence its course, the more
dismal your future becomes.

HAMMER: Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays
is used as a kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts
adjacent the object we are trying to hit.

MECHANIC'S KNIFE: Used to open and slice through the contents of
cardboard cartons delivered to your front door; works particularly
well on contents such as seats, liquids in plastic bottles,
collector magazines, refund checks, and rubber or plastic parts.
Especially useful for slicing work clothes, but only while in use.

HOSE CUTTER: A tool used to make hoses too short.

OXYACETYLENE TORCH: Used almost entirely for lighting various
flammable objects in your shop on fire. Also handy for igniting the grease
inside the wheel hub you want the bearing race out of.

PHILLIPS SCREWDRIVER: Normally used to stab the vacuum seals
under lids but is usually used, as the name implies, to strip
out Phillips screw heads.

PLIERS: Used to round off bolt heads. Sometimes used in the
creation of blood-blisters.

PRY BAR: A tool used to crumple the metal surrounding that clip or
bracket you needed to remove in order to replace a 50 cent part.

SKILL SAW: A portable cutting tool used to make everything too short.

STRAIGHT SCREWDRIVER: A tool for opening paint
cans. Sometimes used to convert common slotted screws into non-removable screws.

TABLE SAW: A large stationary power tool commonly used to launch
wood projectiles for testing wall integrity. Not commonly found in the metal fabrication shop.

TUBE BENDER: Device used for converting useable straight tube into oddly bent useless items
resembling modern art.

TUBE NOTCHER: Used in conjuction with the drill press to notch tube 1/2" too short.

TWO-TON ENGINE HOIST: A tool for testing the maximum
tensile strength of everything you forgot to disconnect.

VISE-GRIPS: Generally used after pliers to
completely round off bolt heads. If nothing else is available, they can also be used to
transfer intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.

WELDING GLOVES: Heavy duty leather gloves used to prolong the
conduction of intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.

WIRE FEED WELDER: Used for dispensing wire.

WIRE WHEEL: Cleans paint off bolts and then throws them somewhere
under the workbench with the speed of light. Also removes fingerprints
and hard-earned calluses from fingers in about the time it takes
you to say, "Oh s%&t!"

[aintgotnun]

Lol!!

[MtnGuy]

Y'all are only figuring a factor of 5 ??? Geez, lucky y'all.

[mjones12]

That's a classic, Jeeper. Well done. It should also be published in places other than this forum. Maybe the Home Depot site.

[cmcct]

Like Mr. Scott, chief engineer on the USS Enterprise said " always multiply your repair estimates by 4 times, then, when you get it done sooner, you look like a genius"

[2Susan]

Please don't also forget the "expanding the project" factor.
It's where you notice just another little thing that needs doing......

[rockwood06]

Believe It or not this is all related to Murphy's Law," What Can Happen, Will Happen" as I tell my wife, things take time

[pondlady]

It's sorta like this: You casually try to flick a paint speck off a doorknob and the doorknob falls off. That means you have to replace it. While doing that (after a trip to the store), the door gets off kilter and you need to remortise the hinges. The door frame now needs replacing and you ruin the paint job while installing a new door. You repaint but it really doesn't match the old pain, so you have to repaint the entire room and that makes the rest of the house look dingy. You repaint the inside of the house and now you need new lighting and a new floor because you dripped paint on everything. Now you need to get some paint off.......