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Old 08-29-2018, 03:10 PM   #1
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Diesel Price headed much higher in 2020?

Interesting article, albeit from one source. What caught my eye is that the International Maritime Organization rules for cleaner diesel on ships kicks in in the year 2020. This may raise the price of diesel substantially.

Please do not turn my post into a political discussion. You are welcome to start your own post on the political or environmental aspects of the issue, but please don't use my post to do it. Thank you.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...ghs-2018-05-18
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Old 08-29-2018, 09:03 PM   #2
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I know for a fact that one of three things will happen to diesel fuel prices by 2020. They will go up, down, or stay the same. NOTHING ELSE IS GUARANTEED!!!
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Old 08-29-2018, 09:16 PM   #3
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Yes, that's true. They are guaranteed to fluctuate. Let's hope they fluck down and they don't fluck up!
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Old 08-29-2018, 09:18 PM   #4
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Popcorn anyone?????

These stories surface often with a little different twist each time .................It sells magazines, papers etc... I will believe it when it happens but I doubt it will.

Not too worried about maritime you ought to see some of the ships out there and most don't play by rules................. they will flag in countries that don't have rules.......................... Not too many cargo or other ships are actually flagged in the United States or Europe for that matter most are flagged in other countries.


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Old 08-30-2018, 12:59 PM   #5
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If diesel goes up so will everything else. All goods are transported by trucks and trucks primarily burn diesel.
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Old 08-30-2018, 01:08 PM   #6
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I know for a fact that one of three things will happen to diesel fuel prices by 2020. They will go up, down, or stay the same. NOTHING ELSE IS GUARANTEED!!!
Guaranteed!

Life will change... Guaranteed!
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Old 08-30-2018, 01:26 PM   #7
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If diesel goes up so will everything else. All goods are transported by trucks and trucks primarily burn diesel.
I think up until the late '70s most freight was still transported by rail. Might be headed back in that direction...
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Old 08-30-2018, 01:30 PM   #8
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I think up until the late '70s most freight was still transported by rail. Might be headed back in that direction...

Maybe but I have been hearing that for the last 20 plus years. But freight still has to get from the rail yard / to where it is going.
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Old 08-30-2018, 01:32 PM   #9
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Labor day

Every holiday fuel prices go up so the oil companies can capitalize on the $$$$.
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Old 08-30-2018, 01:34 PM   #10
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Old 08-30-2018, 01:36 PM   #11
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I believe she is mistaken.
Diesel and gasoline come from the same source and starting in 2020 a lot o applications that today use diesel and gasoline will start to use less diesel/gasoline for they ar moving to electric / hybrid so what we may have is in fact an excess capacity by then....
Also, many applications that use diesel can quickly be converted to natural gas so even if diesel goes higher, it will not stay there for long for the costs of fracking have plummet since the last cycle....
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Old 08-30-2018, 03:04 PM   #12
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There are two certainties....Death and Taxes
I am praying for the death of taxes!
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Old 08-30-2018, 03:28 PM   #13
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Two numbers in the article caught my eye (emphasis added):

Organization mandates that all oceangoing vessels use a lower-sulfur fuel, Kloza says. The only way suppliers can produce this fuel is by blending on-road diesel [available for licensed vehicles like cars and trucks] with some other, higher-sulfur material. That change could boost world demand for diesel by several million barrels, he says.

and

Within the U.S., about 10.5 billion tons of freight are transported annually by truck, requiring almost 39 billion gallons of diesel fuel, according to the American Trucking Associations.

If demand worldwide is going to go up by several million barrels, and the U.S. trucking business alone uses 39 billion gallons per year, the impact seems like a tempest in a teapot.

On the other hand, it doesn't take much to boost prices. Last night, in St. Charles, MO, I bought regular gas for $2.299. Today, just in time for Labor Day Weekend, the same station is at $2.799, an increase of fifty cents, or 21.75%, just because they can. Everyone else around them went up a day earlier.
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Old 08-30-2018, 03:42 PM   #14
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Popcorn anyone?????



Not too worried about maritime you ought to see some of the ships out there and most don't play by rules................. they will flag in countries that don't have rules.......................... Not too many cargo or other ships are actually flagged in the United States or Europe for that matter most are flagged in other countries.


Lots of vessels are flagged in other countries but work primarily in US waters. (I'm on one right now)

Even merchant ships that just deliver here then go back to a home port will still likely take on fuel while in the US. It takes a lot of diesel to get from China to Houston/New York/Wherever.. and those container ships will bunker fuel before starting their return trips.
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Old 08-30-2018, 03:49 PM   #15
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On the other hand, it doesn't take much to boost prices. Last night, in St. Charles, MO, I bought regular gas for $2.299. Today, just in time for Labor Day Weekend, the same station is at $2.799, an increase of fifty cents, or 21.75%, just because they can. Everyone else around them went up a day earlier.
Bob, We can only dream of prices like that around here in southern Indiana.....

Currently, regular is sitting around $2.89 with diesel going for $3 bucks. It's strange that prices can go up 30 to 50 cents a gallon overnight, but yet when they come down, it's like begrudgingly a penny or two at a time.
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Old 08-30-2018, 03:54 PM   #16
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Bob, We can only dream of prices like that around here in southern Indiana.....

Currently, regular is sitting around $2.89 with diesel going for $3 bucks. It's strange that prices can go up 30 to 50 cents a gallon overnight, but yet when they come down, it's like begrudgingly a penny or two at a time.
We were bouncing around from $2.759 to $2.899 when we left Middlebury, IN on Monday. Diesel here in St. Charles is running from about $2.97 to $3.03.
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Old 08-30-2018, 05:56 PM   #17
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All I know is my diesel Mercedes gets twice the miles of my cousins Chevy gasser !
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Old 08-30-2018, 06:07 PM   #18
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yep, diesel will go up.


and, yes, it will go down.


end of discussion.

buy futures if you are really concerned, but that risk vs reward also takes the same track... no one knows, no one.
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Old 08-30-2018, 06:14 PM   #19
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Here's "chapter & verse" on what ships use. If they typically burn #4, it doesn't seem like there's enough volume to affect the diesel price on land.

Bunker fuel is the generic term given to any fuel poured into a ships bunkers to power its engines. Deepsea cargo ships typically burn the heavy, residual oil left over after gasoline, diesel and other light hydrocarbons are extracted from crude oil during the refining process.

Industry material safety sheets for marine fuel oil classify it as hazardous and very toxic to aquatic life, with long-lasting effects.

Bunker fuel is graded A, B or C, with C being the thickest and most viscous, often requiring heating or blending in order to make it flow. Mixed with up to 10 per cent of a lighter fuel, such as diesel, it becomes a cheap fuel for use in shipping.

Characterized as persistent oil, it is likely to spread large distances because it does not easily evaporate.

It is a brown to black liquid, with a characteristic odour.

Vapours are harmful if inhaled, exposure can cause eye or skin irritation.

Suspected of damaging fertility, may cause organ damage through prolonged exposure.

Harmful to fish, toxic to crustaceans and shellfish, very toxic to aquatic plants with potentially long-term adverse effects.

Contains constituent parts with the potential to bioaccumulate.

Left stagnant in storage tanks, deadly hydrogen sulphide gas can form.

Source: Marine engineer Brian Norohnha, BCIT; Shell Marine Fuel Oil Safety Data Sheet, Chevron Marine Products Material Safety Data Sheet and U.S. Office of Response and Restoration of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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Old 08-30-2018, 06:20 PM   #20
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I think up until the late '70s most freight was still transported by rail. Might be headed back in that direction...
Might take a long time for that to happen. A lot of rails have been pulled up and converted to fence posts. Right of ways have been abandoned and turned into bike or hiking trails.


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Maybe but I have been hearing that for the last 20 plus years. But freight still has to get from the rail yard / to where it is going.
Ever hear of rail sidings? Back in the day factories and distribution warehouses had them. The only place trucks were used was for local delivery.

Never quite understood why everything moved to trucks. Numerous trucks out on the Interstate hauling goods from the same source to the same destination. Multiple trucks because one can't carry the whole shipment while rail cars could. Somewhere along the line speed from factory to consumer has become more important than efficiency. A small crew operating a 100+ car train can move how many truckloads of freight over the same distance?????

Environmental and Political issues aside, just plain economics say we've lost our way a long time ago.

As for shipping, those who run the container ships get it. They now build ships that can carry many thousands of containers using not much more fuel than dozens of smaller ships that used to clutter our ports.

As for price of Diesel? Supply and Demand will have the largest effect on prices. Rules will be secondary.
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