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03-24-2020, 09:20 AM
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#661
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 4,043
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Quote:
Originally Posted by D W
That's not the way a "mortality rate" is calculated.
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Right now in the US only mortality stands at just under 1.5 percent . half of what the world total is .
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03-24-2020, 09:24 AM
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#662
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Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Niles, MI.
Posts: 87
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To the OP original question...
The State of Michigan has now closed all state park campgrounds. So, yes, it has now affected our plans.
__________________
John & Cheryl
2016 Ram 1500 Big Horn
2019 Palomino Solaire 202RB
"Why yes, this is my circus and these are my monkeys!"
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03-24-2020, 09:32 AM
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#663
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Between Pickles Gap and Toad Suck, AR
Posts: 6,070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MR.M
Right now in the US only mortality stands at just under 1.5 percent . half of what the world total is .
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Actually, US Mortality rate as of data right now is about 1.2 percent. This is based on 46,485 confirmed cases and 593 deaths.
However, if we tested way more people, the 46,485 number would skyrocket, but the 593 number would not grow much more than it has. Death carries its own sickle to mow down whomever it wants. But testing is up to us, and so that number can vary IF we start testing thousands more than we did. More testing but not many more deaths would make the mortality rate much lower than it is.
Worldwide mortality rate is about 4.3%. That's based on 392,780 confirmed cases and 17,241 deaths.
The difference is that many countries are "testing" using W.H.O. kits. The U.S. has not accepted the same type testing that other countries are using, and are just now developing and distributing our own testing devices.
__________________
"Next to prayer, fishing is the most personal relationship of man" Herbert Hoover
"American by Birth, Southern by the Grace of God"Lewis Grizzard
FROG AR-0019-242
2016 GMC Denali 3500Dually--2017 CC 36CKTS
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03-24-2020, 11:18 AM
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#664
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Site Team
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Northen IL
Posts: 8,288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BandJCarm
Actually, US Mortality rate as of data right now is about 1.2 percent. This is based on 46,485 confirmed cases and 593 deaths.
However, if we tested way more people, the 46,485 number would skyrocket, but the 593 number would not grow much more than it has. Death carries its own sickle to mow down whomever it wants. But testing is up to us, and so that number can vary IF we start testing thousands more than we did. More testing but not many more deaths would make the mortality rate much lower than it is.
Worldwide mortality rate is about 4.3%. That's based on 392,780 confirmed cases and 17,241 deaths.
The difference is that many countries are "testing" using W.H.O. kits. The U.S. has not accepted the same type testing that other countries are using, and are just now developing and distributing our own testing devices.
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I keep hearing that but when you look at someplace like S. Korea which has been said to have the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world and their mortality rate is still around 1.3%
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03-24-2020, 11:38 AM
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#665
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Between Pickles Gap and Toad Suck, AR
Posts: 6,070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iwritecode
I keep hearing that but when you look at someplace like S. Korea which has been said to have the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world and their mortality rate is still around 1.3%
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It is expansive, and it's organized. But it's not absolutely safe. USA tends to err on side of caution. This is one of the results of Regulations meant to keep us 'safe'. Maybe good, but slows down things in emergencies.
If we used the testing S. Korea did, then yes, we could have more tested by now. CDC chose not to.
Testing is ramping up, finally.
__________________
"Next to prayer, fishing is the most personal relationship of man" Herbert Hoover
"American by Birth, Southern by the Grace of God"Lewis Grizzard
FROG AR-0019-242
2016 GMC Denali 3500Dually--2017 CC 36CKTS
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03-24-2020, 12:13 PM
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#666
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Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Saint Paul, MN
Posts: 1,267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BandJCarm
Actually, US Mortality rate as of data right now is about 1.2 percent. This is based on 46,485 confirmed cases and 593 deaths.
However, if we tested way more people, the 46,485 number would skyrocket, but the 593 number would not grow much more than it has. Death carries its own sickle to mow down whomever it wants. But testing is up to us, and so that number can vary IF we start testing thousands more than we did. More testing but not many more deaths would make the mortality rate much lower than it is.
Worldwide mortality rate is about 4.3%. That's based on 392,780 confirmed cases and 17,241 deaths.
The difference is that many countries are "testing" using W.H.O. kits. The U.S. has not accepted the same type testing that other countries are using, and are just now developing and distributing our own testing devices.
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On Mar 20 the US had 19383 cases...as of so far today (so probably 3-5thousand short) there were 43734. New cases add little to the death toll as they have not ran their course. It also true that there are more untested cases that would skew the numbers.The data is too new. If people are doing as they're told and not leaving their house to go the doctor (er) unless they are very sick...the numbers look really bad.
__________________
24 Ram 3500 SRW/LB/50 gal tank/CTD
2024 XLR 31A LE
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03-24-2020, 12:35 PM
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#667
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: North of Seattle, WA
Posts: 17,288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigH
On Mar 20 the US had 19383 cases...as of so far today (so probably 3-5thousand short) there were 43734. New cases add little to the death toll as they have not ran their course. It also true that there are more untested cases that would skew the numbers.The data is too new. If people are doing as they're told and not leaving their house to go the doctor (er) unless they are very sick...the numbers look really bad.
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Here in WA, and I'm sure other places as well, "Drive Through" testing is being implemented to find as many cases as possible before they show up at Dr's offices and ER's.
Adding:
Here's a map showing the number of tests conducted by state:
Looking at this map one this is noticeable. CA, with a huge population, is among the states that has tested the smallest percentage of it's population (tests per million). Considering not just the population, but the population density, the numbers of new cases could skyrocket as the incubation period runs on.
__________________
"A wise man can change his mind. A fool never will." (Japanese Proverb)
"You only grow old when you run out of new things to do"
2018 Flagstaff Micro Lite 25BDS
2023 f-150 SCREW XLT 3.5 Ecoboost (The result of a $68,000 oil change )
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03-24-2020, 12:58 PM
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#668
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 4,043
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BandJCarm
Actually, US Mortality rate as of data right now is about 1.2 percent. This is based on 46,485 confirmed cases and 593 deaths.
However, if we tested way more people, the 46,485 number would skyrocket, but the 593 number would not grow much more than it has. Death carries its own sickle to mow down whomever it wants. But testing is up to us, and so that number can vary IF we start testing thousands more than we did. More testing but not many more deaths would make the mortality rate much lower than it is.
Worldwide mortality rate is about 4.3%. That's based on 392,780 confirmed cases and 17,241 deaths.
The difference is that many countries are "testing" using W.H.O. kits. The U.S. has not accepted the same type testing that other countries are using, and are just now developing and distributing our own testing devices.
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i know percentage was less then 1.5 % it was just a quick head calculation I'd say pretty close
WHO ??? Just kidding . there are reason mortality is higher world wide . italy has way more aged people infected and die increasing deaths . also the WHO test kits may not be that good considering how much higher the mortality rate is . just assuming
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03-24-2020, 01:43 PM
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#669
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Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 432
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MR.M
i know percentage was less then 1.5 % it was just a quick head calculation I'd say pretty close
WHO ??? Just kidding . there are reason mortality is higher world wide . italy has way more aged people infected and die increasing deaths . also the WHO test kits may not be that good considering how much higher the mortality rate is . just assuming
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Actually all you are getting right now is the death rate per number tested. What matters right now is numbers needing hospitalization and ventilators, and that's doubling every 3-4 days. The total numbers with the virus will only ever to be estimated, and they will only get good numbers on that until massive testing is done. The flu season numbers for total infected are always estimates.
__________________
Jeff
2016 APEX 215rbk
2016 F-150 4WD 3.55 3.5l ecoboost
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03-24-2020, 01:43 PM
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#670
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Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 93
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I just heard that the president wants everything opened back up on April 12,, HOORAY. Nothing should have ever closed in the first place. Just cost four trillion dollars, money we don’t have. I’m not politically or any thing like that. Orvan is open for business and I can get my camper worked on. Hopefully all the campgrounds will open back up. I hope the Blue Gate Restaurant in Shipshewana IN is open by the time I get there. The Blue Gate Restaurant makes the worlds best fried chicken, they pressure fry the chicken, yum yum
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03-24-2020, 02:37 PM
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#671
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Site Team
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Northen IL
Posts: 8,288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travlinon
I just heard that the president wants everything opened back up on April 12,, HOORAY. Nothing should have ever closed in the first place.
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I'll just link this post here rather than reposting the info again. Post #17
https://www.forestriverforums.com/fo...ml#post2293009
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03-24-2020, 02:38 PM
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#672
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Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: TEXAS
Posts: 9,131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travlinon
I just heard that the president wants everything opened back up on April 12,, HOORAY.
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I wouldn't count on it. Most of the closures have been ordered by state and local health departments. Don't think he's closed anything.
__________________
2015 Dynamax REV 24TB class C
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03-24-2020, 05:32 PM
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#673
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: North of Seattle, WA
Posts: 17,288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travlinon
I just heard that the president wants everything opened back up on April 12,, HOORAY. Nothing should have ever closed in the first place. Just cost four trillion dollars, money we don’t have. I’m not politically or any thing like that. Orvan is open for business and I can get my camper worked on. Hopefully all the campgrounds will open back up. I hope the Blue Gate Restaurant in Shipshewana IN is open by the time I get there. The Blue Gate Restaurant makes the worlds best fried chicken, they pressure fry the chicken , yum yum
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So does KFC. [emoji57]
__________________
"A wise man can change his mind. A fool never will." (Japanese Proverb)
"You only grow old when you run out of new things to do"
2018 Flagstaff Micro Lite 25BDS
2023 f-150 SCREW XLT 3.5 Ecoboost (The result of a $68,000 oil change )
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03-24-2020, 06:51 PM
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#674
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Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TitanMike
So does KFC. [emoji57]
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Wrong. KFC doesn’t pressure fry chicken anymore. The last few years of Colonel Sanders life when he was doing commercials you may have noticed he didn’t talk. The corporation that owned KFC changed the rules on frying chicken. Colonel Sanders said he had to be in the commercials but nothing was in the contract about talking. KFC quit pressure frying chicken and gizzards. Blue Gate still cooks chicken like the Colonel did. Any restaurant can fry chicken. If this nonsense keeps up the Goshen International rally will be cancelled
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03-24-2020, 07:01 PM
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#675
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Between Pickles Gap and Toad Suck, AR
Posts: 6,070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travlinon
Wrong. KFC doesn’t pressure fry chicken anymore. The last few years of Colonel Sanders life when he was doing commercials you may have noticed he didn’t talk. The corporation that owned KFC changed the rules on frying chicken. Colonel Sanders said he had to be in the commercials but nothing was in the contract about talking. KFC quit pressure frying chicken and gizzards. Blue Gate still cooks chicken like the Colonel did. Any restaurant can fry chicken. If this nonsense keeps up the Goshen International rally will be cancelled
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https://www.kfc.com/about/how-kfc-makes-chicken
Their website says they pressure fry it.
However both do it, I LOVE both of 'em. Thigh and Leg please.
__________________
"Next to prayer, fishing is the most personal relationship of man" Herbert Hoover
"American by Birth, Southern by the Grace of God"Lewis Grizzard
FROG AR-0019-242
2016 GMC Denali 3500Dually--2017 CC 36CKTS
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03-24-2020, 07:35 PM
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#676
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Waukee, IA
Posts: 566
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Our camping plans are about the only plans that haven't changed. Our camper and home are the best places to practice social distancing. As long as we can still find places to camp. If all else fails, there's the driveway.
__________________
'19 Chevy Colorado Z71 4x4 Crew Cab
'17 Salem Cruise Lite 232RBXL
Mickey the Rescue Project Schnauzer
Days Camped: '17-39, '18-61, '19-64, '20-38
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03-24-2020, 08:13 PM
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#677
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Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 1,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travlinon
I just heard that the president wants everything opened back up on April 12,, HOORAY. Nothing should have ever closed in the first place. Just cost four trillion dollars, money we don’t have. I’m not politically or any thing like that. Orvan is open for business and I can get my camper worked on. Hopefully all the campgrounds will open back up. I hope the Blue Gate Restaurant in Shipshewana IN is open by the time I get there. The Blue Gate Restaurant makes the worlds best fried chicken, they pressure fry the chicken, yum yum
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I thought that the Indiana Governor today implemented 'Stay at Home' decree similar to what Illinois and other states have done. Won't that affect Orvan also? Maybe not. You might be able to do a carry-out from the Blue Gate though. Good luck and stay safe.
__________________
2018 Cedar Creek 36CK2 (40.5ft)
TST Cap System (Tire Monitoring)
2021 Chevy 3500HD Crew Cab 4X4 DRW Duramax (replaced 2015 Chevy 2500HD Crew Cab 4X4 Duramax)
Curt A25 5th Wheel Hitch (replaced Demco 18K Auto-slide)
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03-24-2020, 08:30 PM
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#678
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Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleBill
I thought that the Indiana Governor today implemented 'Stay at Home' decree similar to what Illinois and other states have done. Won't that affect Orvan also? Maybe not. You might be able to do a carry-out from the Blue Gate though. Good luck and stay safe.
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I called Orvan today and he is open, working on campers. I’ll be there on April 22. Maybe it’s because he is Amish, I don’t know. I know he is the best at fixing Cedar Creek’s, he is better than the factory
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03-24-2020, 08:37 PM
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#679
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Between Pickles Gap and Toad Suck, AR
Posts: 6,070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleBill
I thought that the Indiana Governor today implemented 'Stay at Home' decree similar to what Illinois and other states have done. Won't that affect Orvan also? Maybe not. You might be able to do a carry-out from the Blue Gate though. Good luck and stay safe.
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Orvan works "at home". Well, within about 40 feet.
__________________
"Next to prayer, fishing is the most personal relationship of man" Herbert Hoover
"American by Birth, Southern by the Grace of God"Lewis Grizzard
FROG AR-0019-242
2016 GMC Denali 3500Dually--2017 CC 36CKTS
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03-24-2020, 08:45 PM
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#680
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Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Joliet, IL
Posts: 1,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travlinon
I called Orvan today and he is open, working on campers. I’ll be there on April 22. Maybe it’s because he is Amish, I don’t know. I know he is the best at fixing Cedar Creek’s, he is better than the factory
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You are right about being the best and being better than the factory. By the 22nd things might be good. I was suppose to be there for repairs on the 31st but I cancelled. Could have rescheduled to April 13th but opted to wait till May 11th. Orvan and his group are too good too have them contract this nasty virus.
__________________
2018 Cedar Creek 36CK2 (40.5ft)
TST Cap System (Tire Monitoring)
2021 Chevy 3500HD Crew Cab 4X4 DRW Duramax (replaced 2015 Chevy 2500HD Crew Cab 4X4 Duramax)
Curt A25 5th Wheel Hitch (replaced Demco 18K Auto-slide)
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