Covid 19 Spread Rate

[UGACamper]

Very interesting graphic. Thanks for posting. [emoji106]

Originally Posted by kenandterry

Watch this graph in motion........

Very scary, but don’t let the last few days mislead anyone.


https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

[TitanMike]

Originally Posted by Timoteo

For a little perspective ...if you go on the same worldometers website you will see as of Jan 1 to April 14 we have had a global death total of 139,138 seasonal flu deaths while we have had 125,145 global deaths from coronavirus.

Not to minimize the effect if influenza on society but there is one difference that is often overlooked. "Flu Season" can begin in October and last as long as into May, roughly six months.

Covid 19 didn't show up in the US (first recorded case) until Jan 10 and here we are roughly 3 months later with it taking a toll that usually takes twice as long.

THAT's what makes it so dangerous. The manner and rate of spread.

[frank4711]

So .... the spread of the virus depends on who has it and who gets it ... where there are more people to give then more get less givers less get ... that should clear it up

[BigRockr]

Originally Posted by CurtPutnam

I wasn't there for the moon landings and could only watch on TV, but I believe they happened.

Wait! We landed on the Moon?

[Scheinin]

Originally Posted by BigRockr

Wait! We landed on the Moon?

Very funny. Nice to see a sense of humor with all the talking heads claiming the end of the world.

[B and B]

Originally Posted by Scheinin

Very funny. Nice to see a sense of humor with all the talking heads claiming the end of the world.

I believe in Science myself, not talking points or how well the response has been based upon propaganda. In amongst the cable news shows and such the truth exists. But I have worked in the broadest industry since 1979 and can tell the truth easier that some.

Believe in what you want this is serious stuff.

[Scheinin]

Originally Posted by B and B

I believe in Science myself, not talking points or how well the response has been based upon propaganda. In amongst the cable news shows and such the truth exists. But I have worked in the broadest industry since 1979 and can tell the truth easier that some.

Believe in what you want this is serious stuff.

I don't believe anyone trusts the news since Walter Cronkite left.

Fox News says one thing, CNN just the opposite. Neither one is believable.

[babock]

Originally Posted by TitanMike

Not to minimize the effect if influenza on society but there is one difference that is often overlooked. "Flu Season" can begin in October and last as long as into May, roughly six months.

Covid 19 didn't show up in the US (first recorded case) until Jan 10 and here we are roughly 3 months later with it taking a toll that usually takes twice as long.

THAT's what makes it so dangerous. The manner and rate of spread.

And that is with all the social distancing. Can't even imagine how bad it would have been if we hadn't started that.

[Oaklevel]

Originally Posted by Scheinin

I don't believe anyone trusts the news since Walter Cronkite left.

Fox News says one thing, CNN just the opposite. Neither one is believable.

X2

Back in the day the news was reported.......... today the news is reported with a lot of opinion thrown in.

[frank4711]

Originally Posted by BigRockr

Wait! We landed on the Moon?

My great great grandfather told me after he saw the news about the moon landing"don't you believe it" he was born 1875 and died 1977 had an amazing life...

[SailorSam20500]

Truth is... Interesting that here in Michigan we have the Detroit metro area with quite a few cases and other whole counties with 0 reported cases. Highest numbers are big cities and large college areas.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by Timoteo

For a little perspective ...if you go on the same worldometers website you will see as of Jan 1 to April 14 we have had a global death total of 139,138 seasonal flu deaths while we have had 125,145 global deaths from coronavirus.


.according to the CDC since Oct. 2019 there have been between 24,000-62,000 seasonal flu deaths in the U.S. about average year in and year out. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm
While it is important to be vigilant and social distance...if we watch the never ending 24/7 news cycle on the coronavirus we will scare ourselves to death.

I unplugged my tv over a decade ago because I couldn't stand watching the opinion,,,err, I mean news. The perspective I get from a one year flu total is through the numbers...There is no question that if this Covid19 infected the same number of people as the flu it would have a higher death rate than the flu but lets play with some numbers.

For the flu last year: 35,000 died and 35m were infected. If we compare that to New York city (and lets assume a staggering exaggerated number of New York city residents are infected with c19)...say 1 out of every 3 or 30%. That would be 2.5m have it and more than 10,000 have died which would give us a very small death rate of .4% compared to the estimate of 2% by the experts (if you use the low estimate). I can't find anyone with any credibility that believes the death rate of c19 is .4% but just for perspective that .4% applied to our US flu total would have meant that 140,000 people would have died in the US from the flu last year. If we use the 2% death rate number with the number of positive flu case from last year, we have 700,000 dead.

The problem is, it is infecting way more people than the flu and killing more of them. Another issue is the flu virus drops off in the summer and C19 shows no signs of that relief. Any comparison with the flu makes this c19 look really bad.

Originally Posted by Mike134

Just to keep things in perspective those 24,000 flu deaths took 52 weeks to achieve living a "normal" lifestyle. This virus killed 24,000 in just 6 weeks with 1/2 that time "socially distanced" Any educated guesses what the number would be after 52 weeks without some type of distancing?

Correct and staggering to see that 24,000 number you posted went to more than 26,000 over night.

[Mike223]

Originally Posted by Timoteo

For a little perspective ...if you go on the same worldometers website you will see as of Jan 1 to April 14 we have had a global death total of 139,138 seasonal flu deaths while we have had 125,145 global deaths from coronavirus.


.according to the CDC since Oct. 2019 there have been between 24,000-62,000 seasonal flu deaths in the U.S. about average year in and year out. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

While it is important to be vigilant and social distance...if we watch the never ending 24/7 news cycle on the coronavirus we will scare ourselves to death.

Amen to that. Newsmedia are really driving me crazy and that is a short drive.
Mike

[Roberte52]

Originally Posted by RockDodger

I still don't know anyone who has it. I hear about it on the news. Supposedly it is "everywhere". I'm just not seeing it.

X3

[rjshiflet]

I live in a county of almost 150,000 residents and to date we have had 14 cases - none of them requiring hospitalization. Ages range from 20s to the 80s and currently 7 have recovered and 7 are self-monitoring while they continue recovering. And thankfully one that has recovered is the gentleman that is in his 80s.

I count myself blessed - my wife and I are basically "hiding from the world" and making it fine, though we do really miss RVing.

[bobm253]

What I'm hearing is that the death rate may be overstated some as in NY if a person dies while having the virus no matter what - the death is attributed to the virus.

People who die from heart disease or copd or cancer etc are being recorded as due to the virus.

Also have heard that the hospitals receive $19,000 for each admission for the virus and $39, 000 for each death. Don't know how true - but I;m sure the death numbers are being inflated.

[goduc]

Originally Posted by bobm253

What I'm hearing is that the death rate may be overstated some as in NY if a person dies while having the virus no matter what - the death is attributed to the virus.

People who die from heart disease or copd or cancer etc are being recorded as due to the virus.

Also have heard that the hospitals receive $19,000 for each admission for the virus and $39, 000 for each death. Don't know how true - but I;m sure the death numbers are being inflated.

Some people say.

[Mike134]

If it's on a forum or facebook it must be true

[kayan121110]

Originally Posted by bobm253

What I'm hearing is that the death rate may be overstated some as in NY if a person dies while having the virus no matter what - the death is attributed to the virus.

People who die from heart disease or copd or cancer etc are being recorded as due to the virus.

Also have heard that the hospitals receive $19,000 for each admission for the virus and $39, 000 for each death. Don't know how true - but I;m sure the death numbers are being inflated.

Funny, I heard the exact opposite. That death rates are understated because there are not enough tests for coroners to perform on all of the people suspected of dying from corona virus. I'll provide my source instead of the ol' "some people are saying" or "everyone is saying it"....lol

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...-higher-2020-4

[bobm253]

Originally Posted by Mike134

If it's on a forum or facebook it must be true

I get your point but you can say the same thing about info from TV, radio, newspapers, etc. So who knows what is correct for sure.