Covid 19 Spread Rate

[CurtPutnam]

Originally Posted by BigH

I unplugged my tv over a decade ago because I couldn't stand watching the opinion,,,err, I mean news. The perspective I get from a one year flu total is through the numbers...There is no question that if this Covid19 infected the same number of people as the flu it would have a higher death rate than the flu but lets play with some numbers.

For the flu last year: 35,000 died and 35m were infected. If we compare that to New York city (and lets assume a staggering exaggerated number of New York city residents are infected with c19)...say 1 out of every 3 or 30%. That would be 2.5m have it and more than 10,000 have died which would give us a very small death rate of .4% compared to the estimate of 2% by the experts (if you use the low estimate). I can't find anyone with any credibility that believes the death rate of c19 is .4% but just for perspective that .4% applied to our US flu total would have meant that 140,000 people would have died in the US from the flu last year. If we use the 2% death rate number with the number of positive flu case from last year, we have 700,000 dead.

The problem is, it is infecting way more people than the flu and killing more of them. Another issue is the flu virus drops off in the summer and C19 shows no signs of that relief. Any comparison with the flu makes this c19 look really bad.



Correct and staggering to see that 24,000 number you posted went to more than 26,000 over night.

Riversode County, CA as of 4p, 4/15/20

< 2000 positive cases and 50 deaths
Men account for all but nine deaths, and 28 of 50 deaths involve those 65 to 84 years old.

The average death rate may not matter if one of 65 or more years of age.

[TheMusikShoppe]

There is news coming out of Stanford that the virus was probably in California's Bay Area as early as late November.

We are in the Central Valley, but we have a business in The Bay Area. I got super sick in Early December. My symptoms included, high fever, loss of taste, persistent cough with no sputum, chest tightness, lethargy.....you get the picture. I was sick for three weeks. I want to get the antibody test, but can't find anywhere that does it near me. We're currently near Quartzite AZ in a tiny town called Brenda. It's very safe here which makes it hard to think about going back to California.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by TheMusikShoppe

There is news coming out of Stanford that the virus was probably in California's Bay Area as early as late November.

We are in the Central Valley, but we have a business in The Bay Area. I got super sick in Early December. My symptoms included, high fever, loss of taste, persistent cough with no sputum, chest tightness, lethargy.....you get the picture. I was sick for three weeks. I want to get the antibody test, but can't find anywhere that does it near me. We're currently near Quartzite AZ in a tiny town called Brenda. It's very safe here which makes it hard to think about going back to California.

I read the news coming out of Stanford and some other opinion on the belief that the virus has already been in the community longer than we think, implying places have herd immunity. There is even some information about how many people complained of an odd illness with similar symptoms. My entire work group had a weird dry cough and other symptoms in late February...maybe it was the virus but I don't think so and just one problem (there are several) with thinking a good portion of the US has already had the virus: why are we still seeing the current infection and death rates numbers happening in the east coast cities where we clearly lost control before social distancing?

I don't have an answer but any real scientific publication related to the virus having already ran through population(s) would have to explain that question.

[Slow Moon]

Originally Posted by TheMusikShoppe

There is news coming out of Stanford that the virus was probably in California's Bay Area as early as late November.

***

I suggest there is no such "news" coming out of Stanford. A little research into this subject shows that Victor Davis Hanson, a neocon military historian at the Hoover Institute with no expertise in contagious diseases and no reliable scientific evidence to support his opinion, authored a "Politics & Policy" opinion article published in the National Review 3/31/2020 arguing that social distancing has not helped California reduce COVID-19 spread.

Since then, nothing supports his theory other than particular talk show hosts. The Hoover Institution is a conservative "think tank" which should not be confused with Stanford's medical research organizations.

Mr. Hanson pushes his unsubstantiated theories in an attempt to undermine the rationale for social distancing and have us believe that social distancing is not a reason why California has had fewer COVID-19 cases than would otherwise be expected. Everyone can decide for themselves whether Mr. Hanson is convincing, but it would be a mistake to believe that his opinion article constitutes news that that the virus has been in California since last year or that social distancing is not useful.

Other than Mr. Hanson and particular talk show hosts, I can find no news to support herd immunity or undermine the view that social distancing is working.

Mr. Hanson's views can be found here: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...herd-immunity/

[TitanMike]

Originally Posted by Slow Moon

I suggest there is no such "news" coming out of Stanford. A little research into this subject shows that Victor Davis Hanson, a neocon military historian at the Hoover Institute with no expertise in contagious diseases and no reliable scientific evidence to support his opinion, authored a "Politics & Policy" opinion article published in the National Review 3/31/2020 arguing that social distancing has not helped California reduce COVID-19 spread.

Since then, nothing supports his theory other than particular talk show hosts. The Hoover Institution is a conservative "think tank" which should not be confused with Stanford's medical research organizations.

Mr. Hanson pushes his unsubstantiated theories in an attempt to undermine the rationale for social distancing and have us believe that social distancing is not a reason why California has had fewer COVID-19 cases than would otherwise be expected. Everyone can decide for themselves whether Mr. Hanson is convincing, but it would be a mistake to believe that his opinion article constitutes news that that the virus has been in California since last year or that social distancing is not useful.

Other than Mr. Hanson and particular talk show hosts, I can find no news to support herd immunity or undermine the view that social distancing is working.

Mr. Hanson's views can be found here: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...herd-immunity/

Perhaps the fact that California is third from the BOTTOM of the list of States and Territories in the number of tests per million of population is why they don't show the number of Covid-19 cases.

They are sixth from the Top with total cases and 7th from the top in total deaths. With 35 million in population (2019) I wonder what the real numbers would be if their testing was more in line with States that tested over 5 times that rate.

I don't know if this guy is right or just full of the stuff we keep in our black water tanks. Fact is we really don't, and won't know how widespread this virus infection is until a greater percentage of the population is tested.

Which State's numbers are more accurate?

California that's tested 5,500 per 1/M of population?

OR

Louisiana that's tested 27,150 per 1/M of population?

Louisiana has a death toll of 1156 today and California only 881.

The real question is going to be what happens when California finds out how many cases of Covid-19 they REALLY have.

[babock]

Originally Posted by BigH

I read the news coming out of Stanford and some other opinion on the belief that the virus has already been in the community longer than we think, implying places have herd immunity.

Not even close to being true. Stanford is working on anti body tests but they are in no way suggesting that this started in November or December.

[BriaBeck]

Originally Posted by TheMusikShoppe

There is news coming out of Stanford that the virus was probably in California's Bay Area as early as late November.

We are in the Central Valley, but we have a business in The Bay Area. I got super sick in Early December. My symptoms included, high fever, loss of taste, persistent cough with no sputum, chest tightness, lethargy.....you get the picture. I was sick for three weeks. I want to get the antibody test, but can't find anywhere that does it near me. We're currently near Quartzite AZ in a tiny town called Brenda. It's very safe here which makes it hard to think about going back to California.

I had the same thing but I had it back in late October/eary November. Went to the Dr, they tested for flu, came back negative. Dr said "I dont' know what you have... stay hydrated...etc."


I'm an airline pilot, see lots of people daily. One of the routes I fly has a large amount of international travelers.


I'm 99% convinced that this is what I had back in November.

[babock]

Originally Posted by TitanMike

Perhaps the fact that California is third from the BOTTOM of the list of States and Territories in the number of tests per million of population is why they don't show the number of Covid-19 cases.

The number of deaths is what you have to go by until they have more testing.

Of course Louisiana's death numbers are likely higher due to the fact they have a lot of poor, obese and smokers in their population compared to other states.

[cmysstailights]

Originally Posted by BriaBeck

I had the same thing but I had it back in late October/eary November. Went to the Dr, they tested for flu, came back negative. Dr said "I dont' know what you have... stay hydrated...etc."


I'm an airline pilot, see lots of people daily. One of the routes I fly has a large amount of international travelers.


I'm 99% convinced that this is what I had back in November.

Me and my wife are convinced we had it in nov too. My daughter had fever and bad cough for almost 2 weeks. My wife was sick for a week and dr said its not flu but not sure what she has. I was sick for a week too. It def was here

[BigH]

Originally Posted by babock

Not even close to being true. Stanford is working on anti body tests but they are in no way suggesting that this started in November or December.

Exactly...I was trying to be nice and show how impossible this opinion is in reality.

[Slow Moon]

Originally Posted by TitanMike

***
Fact is we really don't, and won't know how widespread this virus infection is until a greater percentage of the population is tested.
***

You and those here who are convinced that they have already been infected and recovered illustrate an absolutely critical point: UNTIL WE HAVE WIDESPREAD TESTING, WE ARE FLYING BLIND.

WIDESPREAD TESTING is an absolutely essential key to “reopening the economy” which can occur only as we reduce social distancing. Social distance reduction without widespread testing would be utterly and literally blind. Blindly choosing economic activity over public safety would be not only be amoral, it would also be futile and unwise because the economy cannot recover before public health is protected. *(see rant below)

ONLY when widespread testing is in place can we identify the infected and clear the recovered. The infected can then be effectively quarantined and the source of their infection traced back to others to be quarantined. Then we can all start the process of getting back to work and play with more social interaction. I look forward to this happening, but it would be foolish to pursue without widespread testing.

The USA ranks a sad and tragic 43rd in the world in TESTS per 1 Million population.

Some in government would have us believe the USA has “been doing more test — tests than any other country anywhere in the world. It’s one of the reasons that we have more cases than other countries, because we’ve been testing. It’s also one of the reasons that we’re just about the lowest in terms of mortality rate.” We have also been told “Anybody that wants a test can get a test.” I’m curious if anyone here believes these statements.

________________________

* I note that reopening business before controlling COVID-19 would be fine in the short-term for CEOs, who on average make 271 times the average wage of their workers. CEOs don't have to rub elbows with workers. The workers will be risking their lives to survive. Many essential workers that support us are getting sick. While workers try to survive, they will will add more $Millions to their CEO's existing $Millions. Note that businesses that REALLY care about their workers, the NBA, NFL, NHL are not clamoring to reopen, and nobody can order them to reopen. They canceled their seasons long before any talk of forcing them to do so. They chose to protect their players. They can't just bring in replacements if their workers get sick and die. [Small businesses have different considerations beyond the scope of this part of my rant]

[lorenc]

I have to agree with “ Scheinin” on a three day trip home from Florida with my trailer I switched back and forth between Fox and CNN and its laughable, tho not really funny, that they will each twist something around so that they are opposite of each other. One hates the Dems and one hates the Pres and anything he says. I miss Walter !!

[BandJCarm]

Originally Posted by lorenc

I have to agree with “ Scheinin” on a three day trip home from Florida with my trailer I switched back and forth between Fox and CNN and its laughable, tho not really funny, that they will each twist something around so that they are opposite of each other. One hates the Dems and one hates the Pres and anything he says. I miss Walter !!

Smart man once told me "Compromise is the art of making both parties miserable".

[BigH]

Originally Posted by Slow Moon

You and those here who are convinced that they have already been infected and recovered illustrate an absolutely critical point: UNTIL WE HAVE WIDESPREAD TESTING, WE ARE FLYING BLIND.

WIDESPREAD TESTING is an absolutely essential key to “reopening the economy” which can occur only as we reduce social distancing. Social distance reduction without widespread testing would be utterly and literally blind. Blindly choosing economic activity over public safety would be not only be amoral, it would also be futile and unwise because the economy cannot recover before public health is protected. *(see rant below)

ONLY when widespread testing is in place can we identify the infected and clear the recovered. The infected can then be effectively quarantined and the source of their infection traced back to others to be quarantined. Then we can all start the process of getting back to work and play with more social interaction. I look forward to this happening, but it would be foolish to pursue without widespread testing.

The USA ranks a sad and tragic 43rd in the world in TESTS per 1 Million population.

Some in government would have us believe the USA has “been doing more test — tests than any other country anywhere in the world. It’s one of the reasons that we have more cases than other countries, because we’ve been testing. It’s also one of the reasons that we’re just about the lowest in terms of mortality rate.” We have also been told “Anybody that wants a test can get a test.” I’m curious if anyone here believes these statements.

________________________

* I note that reopening business before controlling COVID-19 would be fine in the short-term for CEOs, who on average make 271 times the average wage of their workers. CEOs don't have to rub elbows with workers. The workers will be risking their lives to survive. Many essential workers that support us are getting sick. While workers try to survive, they will will add more $Millions to their CEO's existing $Millions. Note that businesses that REALLY care about their workers, the NBA, NFL, NHL are not clamoring to reopen, and nobody can order them to reopen. They canceled their seasons long before any talk of forcing them to do so. They chose to protect their players. They can't just bring in replacements if their workers get sick and die. [Small businesses have different considerations beyond the scope of this part of my rant]

Actually if you look at testing in the hot spots the US is out testing everyone per mil...We've tested over 550,000 thousand in just New York...there is only 5 countries that have conducted more test in their entire country.

I don't see how testing on a scale in order to do what you're suggesting is logistically possible.

Until a meaningful treatment/vaccine or this virus has run its course through a high majority of the population there will be no "reopening the economy" because people won't participate.

[Slow Moon]

Originally Posted by lorenc

I have to agree with “ Scheinin” on a three day trip home from Florida with my trailer I switched back and forth between Fox and CNN and its laughable, tho not really funny, that they will each twist something around so that they are opposite of each other. One hates the Dems and one hates the Pres and anything he says. I miss Walter !!

Kudos, you are correct. Not everyone will recognize or admit what you see. Sometimes I watch BBC for a source that is not caught up within the bias.

When trying to run down highly controversial partisan subjects, I sometimes refer to https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ to find a LEAST BIASED SOURCE. Although this may be a bit deeper than most want to go, I have double checked and found this site to be a fair rating of both sides. It will probably tick off or satisfy one side about equally to the other. I have checked dozens of news sources through this site and find it reliable. It accurately calls out the biases of both Fox & CNN.

Their list of LEAST BIASED SOURCES is at https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/center/

[babock]

Originally Posted by Slow Moon

Kudos, you are correct. Not everyone will recognize or admit what you see. Sometimes I watch BBC for a source that is not caught up within the bias.

And reading the Economist...also from the UK.

[BandJCarm]

Originally Posted by BigH

Actually if you look at testing in the hot spots the US is out testing everyone per mil...We've tested over 550,000 thousand in just New York...there is only 5 countries that have conducted more test in their entire country.

I don't see how testing on a scale in order to do what you're suggesting is logistically possible.

Until a meaningful treatment/vaccine or this virus has run its course through a high majority of the population there will be no "reopening the economy" because people won't participate.

Disagree. Here, Bubba and his buddies are GOING to reopen their economy, and soon. They are not as stupid as many think.....they DO listen to smart folks. But they've listened, and seen it's 100X less deadly than THEY were told, and they are going back to work and soon.

When that happens, the virus will spread again. Bubba thinks it won't be too awful bad, and then it'll be over.

Hard to change Bubba's mind. He's sort of a Freedom worshiper. But we'll see.....really soon.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by BandJCarm

Disagree. Here, Bubba and his buddies are GOING to reopen their economy, and soon. They are not as stupid as many think.....they DO listen to smart folks. But they've listened, and seen it's 100X less deadly than THEY were told, and they are going back to work and soon.

When that happens, the virus will spread again. Bubba thinks it won't be too awful bad, and then it'll be over.

Hard to change Bubba's mind. He's sort of a Freedom worshiper. But we'll see.....really soon.

So...You disagree with the testing per mil or you think a large enough percentage of people to get the economy going will return to doing the non-essential things that put them at risk?

[BandJCarm]

Originally Posted by BigH

So...You disagree with the testing per mil or you think a large enough percentage of people to get the economy going will return to doing the non-essential things that put them at risk?

I agree that tests, should valid ones EVER get developed AND distributed to every doctor's office, are wonderful and needed.


I also think a very large percentage of the population in this area believes that there are NO 'non-essential' jobs and that they WILL go back to work soon. There is no constitutional authority to keep them from not doing it. Here, they believe that might increase the spread somewhat, which is terrible, but necessary to retain the country we, and they, have built. Risk is either acceptable risk or non-acceptable risk.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by BandJCarm

I agree that tests, should valid ones EVER get developed AND distributed to every doctor's office, are wonderful and needed.


I also think a very large percentage of the population in this area believes that there are NO 'non-essential' jobs and that they WILL go back to work soon. There is no constitutional authority to keep them from not doing it. Here, they believe that might increase the spread somewhat, which is terrible, but necessary to retain the country we, and they, have built. Risk is either acceptable risk or non-acceptable risk.

Thanks for clarifying.

I saw a poll that said more than 70% would not attend a live sporting event without a vaccine...I assume that would apply in a meaningful way to other public places that are needed to 'open back up the economy'.

What percentage of people would need to return to life as normal in your opinion to have a meaningful effect that would get the economy back on track?