Sobering comparison between flu and Covid 19

[BigH]

If we break this down to daily deaths using 500,000 world wide deaths, which would be on the high end of average per year for the standard flu, the new covid19 is already killing the same amount per day...and the Covid19 mess is just in its infancy.

If we take Italy for example which is probably giving us reliable numbers they have about 23,000 flu deaths per year. That is 63 a day. There have been about 1500 deaths from Covid19 in the last three days in Italy. It would be one thing if they were nearing the end of the infection rate but that number is climbing exponentially. Different genetic variations in populations of humans may have a very different result and I hope Italy is anomalous but if these numbers don't bring you pause...

For sure the only way we will be able to make equal comparisons between flu deaths and covid19 is when this is all history and we pile up the numbers but the current events are showing the potential of covid19 to make the flu look like something that can be covered with a band aid.

[Cabinfever97]

I agree the seriousness of this virus. However Italy makes for a bad comparable. The average age of those who have died from Covid there is 80. Thier elderly population is very large. Be smart people, avoid any gathering and practice hyper hygiene.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by Cabinfever97

I agree the seriousness of this virus. However Italy makes for a bad comparable. The average age of those who have died from Covid there is 80. Thier elderly population is very large. Be smart people, avoid any gathering and practice hyper hygiene.

While I'm in agreement about the age of those dying and it probably isn't pertinent to the youth of the world statistically, the comparison is about the affect of the flu on the same population...

Much of the readers of this forum are in an age group that places them at higher risk and some think this will be just like the flu. -I hope they're right but it doesn't appear to be heading that way.

[TitanMike]

Originally Posted by BigH

While I'm in agreement about the age of those dying and it probably isn't pertinent to the youth of the world statistically, the comparison is about the affect of the flu on the same population...

Much of the readers of this forum are in an age group that places them at higher risk and some think this will be just like the flu. -I hope they're right but it doesn't appear to be heading that way.

Age has certainly been the loudest part of the conversation but don't forget that along with age, those with chronic respiratory issues are also in the high risk group along with heart disease and any immune system disorder.

Here's one report's estimate of how many in the US that suffer from potentially severe respiratory illnesses:

Currently more than 25 million people6,7 in the United States have asthma. Approximately 14.8 million adults have been diagnosed with COPD, and approximately 12 million people have not yet been diagnosed.

https://www.healthypeople.gov/2020/t...atory-diseases


To put some perspective to this, there are only around 3 million people in the US over the age of 80.

The "Risk Pool" is a lot larger than many people think.

As for Italy, the graph shown in this link shows that that Covid19 has been pretty much an equal opportunity virus when it comes to the distribution of deaths by age. 25% of the deaths occurred in the 19-50 year age group and the remainder was split pretty equal between the 51-70 and 70+ group.

I don't think it would be wise to think that only old people are vulnerable. It's going to depend on the state of health of ALL age groups, individually, not collectively.

[keizer_or]

It's not just the flu or a cold. Here is the Science behind it all...

AN EXPLANATION from a microbiologist at the CDC:

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this with others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... i.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually, these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years its only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that's what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. Its RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places have helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

#flattenthecurve Stay home folks or simply away from others who may be carrying it if you can be outdoors somewhere... and share this to those that just are not catching on. [emoji851]

[dannybye]

793 deaths yesterday in Italy. Has this got your attention yet?

[BigH]

Originally Posted by keizer_or

...That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

...

'Slippery' is not unique to Covid19. The common flu is slippery and was once a 'novel' virus. It became part of humanity the same as covid19, Novel H1N1 2009, Spanish flu 1918, H2N2, etc (all slippery)... Recurring seasonal flu is a mutation of the same one since that novel introduction. It mutates enough every year that our immune system doesn't recognize it before it multiplies in our bodies enough to cause a problem and this continuous mutating is why you can catch it every year.

Influenza (flu) exists in animals and people, the same for Corona virus. They are zoonotic. New mutations jump from animal to human (or human to animal). Viruses are always mutating, they can mutate themselves into something more or less harmful but history has shown that first exposure (novel) has the most potential for being deadly. This covid19 will likely join the list of human afflictions and will come back around year after year just like the flu.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by dannybye

793 deaths yesterday in Italy. Has this got your attention yet?

Yep...more than 2,300 deaths in the last 4 days.

Spain is something to keep an eye on...younger demographics and their death rate per day is going up fast.

[Life Without Whine]

The 2 strain thing is likely a good thing - one is a weaker form & will likely persist over the next 12 -24 months while the other that kills off the host species cannot spread as effectively (one would hope) and therefore dies with the host. That is the form we are trying to control by social isolation (let's call it what it is folks). USA can handle this pandemic but it needs to be slowed down so we can have enough hospital beds for supportive care of all that come in contact with the more deadly form.

Everyone must take the need to have distance & only be out for essential items / needs seriously. Your haircut, car wash, house paint, new clothes, etc ... can all wait for a couple months if it may save the life of you or someone you know.

[TitanMike]

Just some food for thought.

Early in my lifetime (like when I was born) our entire Nation had mobilized to fight a war agaist an enemy thousands of miles from our homeland. Rationing of critical supplies, curfews, restricted travel, you name it, our citizens did it.

Those of us my age were just children but our parents went through it, some working in factories and some off to the battlefields far away.

Today we are faced with a deadly enemy but sadly so many in current generations see it all as a big inconvenience, overreaction, unnecessary, etc.

My how we've changed as a country.

Friedrich Nietzsche said: “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.”

It was true after WWII and it will be true again.

[Mmyoyo]

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

read something interesting from the experts

[Reverse_snowbird]

Originally Posted by keizer_or

#flattenthecurve Stay home folks or simply away from others who may be carrying it if you can be outdoors somewhere... and share this to those that just are not catching on. [emoji851]

I agree.

This covid19 is twice as contageous as the flu. One person passes it on to 2+ people.
The incubation time is 1 to 14 days. The flu's incubation time is 1 to 4 days.

We need to follow the example of St. Louis in 1918 where the death rate was 1/2 that of Philadelphia where they held a parade. St. Louis closed schools, churches, libraries, banned gathering of 20+ people and staggered work shifts. Perhaps some of our governors actually pay attention to history.

If we can believe history 'social distancing' works. (Listen to me... preaching to the choir... )

[lewisra]

did Italy get it before the US?

[BandJCarm]

Flu has a vaccine. This does not.
Flu has a post-contraction medicine, Tamiflu. This does not.
Flu occurs annually and spreads fast but nowhere near as fast as this has.


Not sure why it matters which one is worse. Dead is dead.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by BandJCarm

Flu has a vaccine. This does not.
Flu has a post-contraction medicine, Tamiflu. This does not.
Flu occurs annually and spreads fast but nowhere near as fast as this has.


Not sure why it matters which one is worse. Dead is dead.

It doesn't matter to me which is worse what does matter is putting things into perspective to make informed decisions...folks do this by making comparisons and theorizing with the information at hand.

Not taking appropriate action due to underestimating impact means more people dead.

[BigH]

Originally Posted by lewisra

did Italy get it before the US?

Italy is roughly 2 weeks before us in the rate of when the infection numbers took off.

The US just took second place in the number of people infected today. 5403 in the last 24 hours. Italy took the top spot with 6557.

Considering we are going to only be testing health care workers and the hospitalized I suspect the newly infected numbers will go down but the number of dead will increase.

[chriscowles]

Originally Posted by keizer_or

… AN EXPLANATION from a microbiologist at the CDC: ...

Not to rebut the importance of the information, but this article has been circulating with a number of ambiguous sources.

Google search evidence: https://preview.tinyurl.com/sqyes7m

[lmiken]

Originally Posted by BandJCarm

Flu has a vaccine. This does not.
Flu has a post-contraction medicine, Tamiflu. This does not.
Flu occurs annually and spreads fast but nowhere near as fast as this has.


Not sure why it matters which one is worse. Dead is dead.

flu has a Vaccine but it is only 45% to 55% effective. The vaccine may not necessarily work on the virus that shows up because they pick the wrong varieties or the virus mutates. Ebola and HIV are others that mutated from animals that have no effective vaccines either. So this 3rd Coronavirus is just another in a long line of mutations.

[lewisra]

Originally Posted by BigH

Italy is roughly 2 weeks before us in the rate of when the infection numbers took off.

The US just took second place in the number of people infected today. 5403 in the last 24 hours. Italy took the top spot with 6557.

Considering we are going to only be testing health care workers and the hospitalized I suspect the newly infected numbers will go down but the number of dead will increase.

So it was in Italy 2 weeks before the US?

Where does the US rank when you use %age of population?

[BigH]

Originally Posted by lewisra

So it was in Italy 2 weeks before the US?

Where does the US rank when you use %age of population?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There is a bunch of statistical info and more if you click on the country.

They changed the infected in the last 24 hours in the US number from 5400 to 4500.